Forecasters predict ever-larger sales of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) in Europe, but the pace of the increase is set to stumble for two to three years as manufacturers take advantage of European Union regulations ( EU) allowing a very profitable and possibly last hurray for gasoline vehicles, according to Schmidt Automotive Research (SAR).
BEVs took just over 2% of the European car and SUV market in 2019 and are expected to skyrocket by 2025, with mainstream forecasters seeing a market share of between 21-23% in 2025. In 2020, BEV’s sales more than doubled as manufacturers rushed to meet stringent new carbon dioxide (CO2) emission standards.
But there will be a pause until EU regulations tighten again in 2025 and automakers take advantage by putting the emphasis back on the production of internal combustion engines (ICE), including the technology. profitable hybrid, DAS said in a report.
European countries like Great Britain have banned the sale of new ICE cars by 2030. Other big producers in Germany and France have yet to decide to join the ban.
SAR Editor-in-Chief Matt Schmidt said that between 2022 and 2024, BEV penetration in Western Europe will only increase by around 3 percentage points and reach only 15% in 2025.
This would be a significant shortfall for a large part of European automakers, in particular for Volkswagen, which has a BEV in Europe target of at least 25% by 2025. Western Europe dominates European sales and includes Germany , France, Great Britain, Italy and Spain. VW and other manufacturers could make money selling limited-time ICE cars, but could face a massive surplus of unsold electric cars. VW has pledged to spend 35 billion euros ($ 43 billion) on BEV with the aim of manufacturing 70 different models by 2030. Other automakers have invested heavily in all-electric models with similar goals on hand. market in 2025.
“The growth in BEV penetration is also expected to be tempered by the return of the ICE market, which is picking up steam following the impact of the coronavirus. BEV volumes are expected to increase from 1.045 million (8.5% market share) in 2021 to 1.31 million (10%) in 2022, 1.54 million (11%) in 2023 and to 1.86 million or 13.0% penetration in 2024, ”said Schmidt.
IHS Markit Data Specialist
Schmidt said for Western Europe, BEV sales will account for 55% of sales in 2030, which would mean actual sales of 7.7 million in a market of 14 million. This takes into account a likely tightening of CO2 targets for 2025 by the EU later this year.
European CO2 rules insist that manufacturers of sedans, sedans and SUVs increase average fuel efficiency by reducing CO2 emissions which in the world of gasoline and diesel translate into l equivalent to about 57 miles per US gallon in 2020/2021, up from 41.9 mpg in 2015, again shrinking by 15% in 2025 and reaching 92 mpg by 2030.
Rules for 2025 are expected to be tightened again this summer, prompting automakers to reap profits from ICE cars before regulations make them unaffordable. VW said it would be impossible to produce and sell small ICE-powered VW Ups or Polos by 2030 and make money.
VW has said 70% of its European sales will be BEVs by 2030, while Jaguar and Ford have gone all-electric by then. Britain has said only new electric cars and some gasoline-powered electric hybrids will be allowed for sale by 2030. Other major European nations are considering this possibility but have not yet decided.
If the German elections in September end in success for the Greens, that could be the end of sales of new ICE cars in Germany. Opinion polls show that is a possibility.